Sat. Jul 31st, 2021
brees

After back-to-back weeks in which the Atlanta Falcons blew 2 huge leads we finally had some other competition for this week’s biggest comeback. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to close a 14-point deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers behind 5 touchdowns from Tom Brady for a NFC South pair of comebacks in week 4 of the 2020 season.

The New Orleans Saints went down 0-14 in the first 5 minutes in their game against the Detroit Lions but they were able to pull it together to overcome the odds. The Saints were able to thwart  a late comeback attempt from the Lions with a 35-29 win.
The score isn’t necessarily impressive but the fashion in which the Saints rallied back is.

The Lions started off with an easy 8 play 77-yard drive to open the score 0-7. The Saints then got the ball but immediately turned it over as Drew Brees threw an interception on the Saints’ first play of the game.

This set up an easy second touchdown for Matthew Stafford. At this point the Lions had a 70% win probability. But this was probably the best moment for live bettors to jump in. The Lions’ had lost their last 5 games in which they had a 10+ point lead. 
But the experienced veteran quarterback Drew Brees led the Saints to a touchdown on their next drive. Everyone felt that the momentum shifted. With the game tied at 14-14 and the Lions in prime scoring position in the red zone Stafford through a game changing interception.

The first half ended 28-14 in favor of the Saints. The Lions scored TDs on their first two drives and then punted, Stafford was picked (above), another punt and another punt to end the half. The Saints then continued to score hitting 35 unanswered points while the Lions only punted and Stafford threw one interception. The biggest leads for the Saints in the second half was 21 points. The first points Detroit managed to score after the Saints’ 35-0 run came in the third quarter. Stafford led his best to get Detroit the win as he scored another touchdown in the fourth but the Saints were able to run out the clock.

This impressive comeback for the Saints  came without star wide receiver Michael Thomas. The strong rushing attack led by Alvin Kamara and solid passing from Brees completely wrecked the Lions’ defense. Matt Patricia’s head coaching position becomes weaker and weaker by the week at this point.

Recommendation: Set an alert for the Saints trailing by 2 possessions / 9 points AND the Lions leading by 10 points.

Week 4 – October 4, 2020

Line: NO -3 | Over/Under: 52

New Orleans Saints (1-2, 0-1) Away at Detroit Lions (1-2, 0-1 Home)

Lion’s Win Probability: 69.6%